(1 February 2023) Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be feeling
fairly good as we speak after delivering on the extensively anticipated 25 foundation level
price hike. Markets rallied strongly after the Fed choice in hopes
that the Fed might solely increase charges another time this 12 months earlier than
reversing course within the second half. Investor optimism is rooted in
the idea that the Fed might now be capable of engineer a ‘gentle touchdown’ for
the financial system, as inflation is tamed with out inducing a recession.
However is the prospect of a extra dovish Fed sufficient to raise shares out of their bear market? Readers might recall a earlier submit
the place I mentioned the Fed horoscope in context of the inventory market. I
urged that an interim low for US shares would possibly coincide with a really
troublesome Saturn transit (24 Capricorn) to the eighth home cusp of the
Fed’s chart in October 2022. As soon as Saturn stationed direct on Oct 23 and
started to maneuver away from this delicate level, market sentiment
improved. As a normal rule, I’ve discovered that when the Fed’s
horoscope comes underneath transit afflictions by malefic planets, monetary
markets grow to be extra weak to declines. Whereas the correlation isn’t
excellent, the connection between between the situation of the Fed’s
chart and the inventory market is at all times value contemplating.
One other piece of the puzzle is the present dasha sequence within the Fed
horoscope. The Federal Reserve is at the moment operating its Rahu-Mercury
dasha interval, which started in July 2021 and can final till Feb 2024.
The Rahu main interval (2013-2031) guarantees surprising or unprecedented
actions which may have a disruptive impact on the broader society.
Rahu’s placement within the ninth home suggests an more and more tense
relationship with authority (i.e. the US authorities) over the course of
its dasha interval. We will additionally predict that the Fed’s Rahu interval is
extra more likely to be unproductive and turbulent as a result of Rahu is troubled
by a sq. side from Saturn within the natal chart. Whereas there has
been long-standing debate in regards to the true extent of the Fed’s
independence from authorities, this Rahu affect suggests this
independence might be examined much more severely than it has previously
(e.g. Arthur Burns underneath Nixon and Jerome Powell underneath Trump).
The Mercury minor interval (2021-2024) might be a reasonably troublesome one,
each for the Fed and for monetary markets. Whereas Mercury (21 Scorpio)
is a extra benefic planet by nature, it’s considerably troubled within the
natal chart as it’s virtually precisely reverse Saturn (20 Taurus).
Mercury’s shut conjunction with Venus mitigates a few of the injury from
Saturn, however I believe it could not fully negate it. Due to this fact, I
would suppose the Rahu-Mercury interval will see the Fed compelled by
circumstances to behave swiftly to regular the financial system whereas shares are extra
more likely to underperform. To a big extent, this promise has already
been fulfilled in the course of the bear market in 2022. Nevertheless, the continued
bearish affect of Rahu-Mercury all through 2023 and into early 2024 is
more likely to additional weigh on markets.
Wanting on the present transits we will see that a few of that current
optimism could also be examined quickly as transiting Mars will conjoin Saturn and
oppose Mercury over the subsequent few weeks. With Jupiter pretty sturdy in
Pisces within the tenth home with Chiron, nonetheless, it’s attainable that
markets might not fare too badly over that point. Additionally, the shortage of any
clear transit affliction from Saturn (1 Aquarius) in February reduces
the likelihood of an enormous market sell-off. Whereas Mars is bearish, it’s
often not as bearish as Saturn.
After all, when it comes to the general market image, the Fed horoscope
is just one issue out of many. Even when there aren’t any sturdy Saturn
influences within the Fed chart in February, Saturn is more likely to manifest
its results elsewhere by a number of midpoint alignments. In consequence,
sentiment might grow to be extra fragile within the coming weeks.
For extra particulars, take a look at my weekly subscriber e-newsletter
which is revealed each Sunday. Along with reviewing the important thing
planetary and technical influences on US and Indian shares for the quick
and medium time period, I additionally present an astrological evaluation of potential
upcoming strikes in currencies, gold and oil.
These updates are often posted midweek. You will be notified of latest posts by following me on Twitter.