Seasonality De-Constructed

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Seasonality De-Constructed


An excerpt from the Feb 10, 2024 subject of the Astrology Letter…

Search across the web and you’ll find individuals selling the idea of seasonality. The above chart of Wheat worth is a typical instance.

Look in the direction of left aspect of this seasonality chart.

The suggestion is that Wheat costs will decline sharply yearly within the month of March after having made a peak in late February/early March. Absolutely this should imply that right here and now I ought to be planning to take a brief place on Chicago Wheat futures as soon as the month of March arrives?

Properly….not precisely….

These seasonality charts are primarily based on a few years of worth knowledge. The above chart is predicated on 20 years of worth knowledge. Over the scope of 20 years, if a number of years posted robust declines through the month of March, these factors would mathematically greater than compensate for a number of years of modest or no important worth declines. Therefore, the individual viewing a seasonality chart at face worth might be led astray.

As a dealer or investor, how do you utilize these seasonality charts and on the identical time keep out of hassle? The reply is to make use of some primary astrology.

The start line for the applying of primary astrology is to have a look at the first commerce horoscope. Within the case of Wheat, we have to research the natal horoscope for Wheat futures which began buying and selling on January 2, 1877. (Observe – Corn and Oats share this identical first commerce date).

The above horoscope wheel from Jan 2, 1877 reveals the place of the planets. What’s curiously attention-grabbing is how the Mid Heaven, Mercury, Pluto and Moon type a 4-sided parallellogram form. I’m satisfied that merchants resembling W.D. Gann watched for our bodies just like the Solar, Moon, and Mars to transit previous the nook factors on this 4-sided geometric form.

In 2023, the worth of Wheat peaked on February 13. To the scholar of seasonality, this may have been surprising as a result of the seasonality chart requires a peak on the finish of February. So, why did Wheat peak in mid-February? At February 13, Moon was passing the natal Mid-Heaven level (and the natal Mars level). Mercury was passing the natal Mercury level within the 1877 horoscope. Two nook factors within the geometric sample within the 1877 chart! No marvel worth peaked as human emotion modified.

Extra not too long ago, in 2024, the worth of Wheat had been trending down. In mid-January, a countertrend began however failed round Jan 24-26. Taking this to be the seasonal high, means the scholar of seasonality was as soon as once more tripped up as a result of worth peaked earlier than it ought to have. Why did worth peak in late January? Solar had simply handed the natal Mercury location. Mars was passing the 1877 natal Ascendant level and Saturn was on the natal Saturn level.

The following time you see a Seasonal chart, don’t simply blindly settle for the worth turning factors illustrated on the chart. The chart itself shall be primarily based on 20-30 years of information which supplies a considerably mis-leading view of issues.

As a substitute, take a look at underlying planetary transit occasions that align to the natal first commerce horoscope. These occasions will trigger the seasonal worth pattern turning factors to shift barely from yr to yr. The energy of any planetary points can even play a job within the voracity of what worth does at a pattern turning level.