DATE: March 24, 2024
Mr. President:
France is reportedly getting ready to dispatch a drive of some 2,000 troops — roughly a strengthened brigade constructed round an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops connected — into Ukraine someday within the not-so-distant future.
» From a military-technical standpoint, we’re actually prepared for nuclear conflict.
Vladimir Putin, March 13, 2024.
This drive is only symbolic, inasmuch as it might have zero survivability in a contemporary high-intensity battle of the scope and scale of what’s transpiring in Ukraine at this time. It will not be deployed immediately in a battle zone, however would serve both as (1) a screening drive/tripwire to cease Russia’s advance; or (2) a substitute drive deployed to a non-active zone to unlock Ukrainian troopers for fight obligation. The French Brigade reportedly will likely be supplemented by smaller items from the Baltic states.
This may be introducing fight troops of a NATO nation right into a theater of conflict, making them “lawful targets” below the Legislation of Warfare. Such items would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia’s view, nevertheless, this can be a distinction with out a distinction. France seems to be betting – naively – that its membership in NATO would forestall Russia from attacking French troops. Quite, it’s extremely doubtless that Russia would assault any French/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and shortly destroy/degrade its fight viability.
» In actual fact, it might be helpful for the great of the trigger for the stressed French to ship a number of regiments to Neonaziland.
Tinheritor systematic destruction wouldn’t be essentially the most troublesome process, however an important.
And it is going to be a superb lesson for the remainder of Europe’s stressed cretins. «
Inthat case, French President Macron might calculate that, after Russian
assaults on the troops of NATO members – NATO mandate or not – he may
invoke Article 5 of the NATO Constitution and get the NATO alliance to
intervene. Such intervention would doubtless take the type of plane
working from NATO nations – and maybe embrace interdiction missions
in opposition to tactical targets inside Russia.
Doctrinally, and by authorized proper, Russia’s response can be to launch retaliatory strikes additionally in opposition to targets in NATO international locations. If NATO then assaults strategic targets inside Russia, at that time Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making facilities can be hit with nuclear weapons.
» REGULAR TROOPS from France, Germany and Poland have arrived, by rail and air, to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. «
We
don’t consider Russia will provoke a nuclear assault in opposition to the U.S.,
however slightly would go away it as much as the USA to resolve if it needs
to danger destruction by getting ready to launch a nuclear strike on Russia.
That stated, Russian strategic forces have improved to the purpose that, in
some areas – hypersonic missiles, for instance – its functionality surpasses
that of the U.S. and NATO.
In
different phrases, the Russian temptation to strike first could also be a bit
stronger than throughout previous crises, and we’re considerably much less assured
that Russia would need to “go second”. One other disquieting issue is
that the Russians are prone to consider that Macron’s folly has the
tacit approval of some key U.S. and different Western officers, who appear
determined to seek out some solution to alter the trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine
– the extra so, as elections draw close to.
What Must Be Executed
The American individuals want to know that Europe is main them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation. […]
March 27, 2024.