Time ▾ Value ▴ Analysis: September Quadruple Witching Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful

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For the reason that S&P index futures started buying and selling on April 21, 1982, inventory choices, index choices in addition to index futures all expire on the identical time 4 instances every year in March, June, September [20 – Fri], and December. September’s quarterly choice expiration week has been up 54.8% of the time for S&P 500 since 1982. DJIA and NASDAQ have barely weaker observe information with beneficial properties 52.4% of the time and 52.4% respectively.

Nonetheless, the week has suffered a number of sizable losses. The worst loss adopted the September 11 terrorist assaults in 2001. Within the final twenty-one years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are tied for finest file throughout September’s quarterly choice expiration week, up 13 instances, however NASDAQ has been down the final six straight. Friday had been agency with all three indices advancing yearly 2004 to 2011, however S&P 500 has been down 11 of the final 12 and NASDAQ has been down 10 of the final 12 since.

S&P 500 Down 27 of 34 Week After September Quarterly Choices Expiration, Common Loss 1.06%


The week after September choices expiration week, has a dreadful historical past of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September quarterly choices expiration week has been an almost fixed supply of ache with only some significant exceptions over the previous 34 years. Substantial and throughout the board beneficial properties have occurred simply 4 instances: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 whereas many extra weeks have been hit with sizable losses. In 2022 DJIA and S&P 500 declined over 4% whereas NASDAQ fell 5.07%.

Full stats are the sea-of-red within the tables right here. Common losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.09%, S&P 500 –1.06%, NASDAQ –1.06%. Finish-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the more than likely clarification for this pattern as managers trim summer time holdings and place for the fourth quarter.