January 25, 2022
Confidential
Distribution: WHCS, ANSA, Dept. of State, CIA, NSA, DNC
Govt Abstract
[…] The present German financial mannequin relies on two pillars. These are limitless entry to low cost Russian vitality assets and to low cost French electrical energy, due to the operation of nuclear energy crops. The significance of the primary issue is significantly greater. Halting Russian provides can properly create a systemic disaster that will be devastating for the German financial system and, not directly, for the whole European Union. The French vitality sector might additionally quickly start to expertise heavy issues. The predictable cease of Russian-controlled nuclear gasoline provides, mixed with the unstable state of affairs within the Sahel area, would make French vitality sector critically depending on Australian and Canadian gasoline.
[…] the German management will not be in full management of the state of affairs within the nation. Because of our exact actions, it has been doable to dam the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, regardless of the opposition of lobbyists from the metal and chemical industries. Nonetheless, the dramatic deterioration of the dwelling requirements might encourage the management to rethink its coverage and return to the thought of European sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
solely possible approach to assure Germany’s rejection of Russian vitality
provides is to contain either side within the navy battle in Ukraine.
Our additional actions on this nation will inevitably result in a navy
response from Russia. Russians will clearly not be capable to go away
unanswered the huge Ukrainian military stress on the unrecognized
Donbas republics. That will make doable to declare Russia an
aggressor and apply to it the whole package deal of sanctions ready
beforehand.
Putin might in flip resolve to impose restricted
counter-sanctions – totally on Russian vitality provides to Europe.
Thus, the harm to the EU international locations will likely be fairly akin to the one
to the Russians, and in some international locations – primarily in Germany – it’s going to
be greater.
prerequisite for Germany to fall into this entice is the main function of
inexperienced events and beliefs in Europe. The German Greens are a strongly
dogmatic, if not zealous, motion, which makes it fairly straightforward to make
them ignore financial arguments. On this respect, the German Greens
considerably exceed their counterparts in the remainder of Europe. Private
options and the shortage of professionalism of their leaders – primarily
Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck – allow to presume that it ls subsequent
to inconceivable for them to confess their very own errors in a well timed method.
Thus,
it is going to be sufficient to rapidly kind the media picture of Putin’s aggressive
warfare to show the Greens into ardent and hardline supporters of
sanctions, a ‘get together of warfare’. It should allow the sanctions regime to be
launched with none obstacles. The shortage of professionalism of the
present leaders won’t enable a setback sooner or later, even when the
adverse impression of the chosen coverage turns into apparent sufficient […] This
will guarantee a sufficiently lengthy hole in cooperation between Germany and
Russia, which can make giant German financial operators uncompetitive.
The cumulative losses of the German financial system may be estimated solely roughly. Even when the restriction of Russian provides is proscribed to 2022, its penalties will final for a number of years, and the overall losses might attain 200-300 billion euros. Not solely will it ship a devastating blow to the German financial system, however the whole EU financial system will inevitably collapse. We’re speaking not a few decline in financial system progress tempo, however a few sustained recession and a decline in GDP solely in materials manufacturing by 3-4% per yr for the following 5-6 years. Such a fall will inevitably trigger panic within the monetary markets and should carry them to a collapse.
The euro will inevitably, and more than likely irreversibly, fall beneath the greenback. A pointy fall of the euro will consequently trigger its international sale. It should change into a poisonous foreign money, and all international locations on the planet will quickly scale back its share of their foreign exchange reserves. This hole will likely be primarily stuffed with greenback and yuan.
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One other inevitable consequence of a chronic financial recession will likely be a pointy drop in dwelling requirements and rising unemployment (as much as 200,000-400,000 in Germany alone), which can entail the exodus of expert labour and well-educated younger folks. There are actually no different locations for such migration aside from america at this time. A considerably smaller, but in addition fairly vital move of migrants may be anticipated from different EU international locations.
The situation into account will thus serve to strengthen the nationwide monetary situation each not directly and most immediately. Within the brief time period, it’s going to reverse the pattern of the looming, financial recession and, as well as, consolidate American society by distracting it from quick financial issues. This, in flip, will scale back electoral dangers.
Within the medium time period (4-5 years), the cumulative advantages of capital flight, re-oriented logistical flows and decreased competitors in main industries might quantity to USD 7-9 trillion. Sadly, China can be anticipated to profit over the medium time period from this rising situation. On the identical time, Europe’s deep political dependence on the U.S. permits us to successfully neutralise doable makes an attempt by particular person European states to attract nearer to China.
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