Regardless of the Fed’s concerted efforts to tighten financial coverage over the
previous yr, inflation stays a serious drawback for the economic system. Right now’s
ISM manufacturing value report got here in stronger than anticipated, renewing
fears that we could also be going through a contemporary wave of value will increase. Not
surprisingly, shares fell and bond yields moved increased as buyers
recalibrated their expectations concerning additional rate of interest hikes.
With the benchmark 10-year Treasury now buying and selling above the
psychologically vital 4% stage, it now appears sure that the Fed
will probably be pressured to boost charges a lot increased than beforehand anticipated.
The return of inflation isn’t surprising. In a December put up,
I speculated that bond yields would probably transfer increased in spring given
the afflictions within the horoscope of US Treasuries. Whereas it isn’t fairly
spring but, it’s nonetheless very shut, particularly for the reason that specified
side is properly inside vary. Along with the dangerous ongoing Saturn
dasha affect that can final into September 2023, the important thing measurement
on this respect is the opposition side from Saturn (5 Aquarius) to the
natal Solar (5 Leo). This side is quick approaching its precise
opposition, even when its results can linger for days or typically even
weeks after the exact 180-degree side.
We are able to additionally see that the Treasury chart can also be below stress from
the transit of Mars (25 Taurus). It’s approaching its natal place
(0 Gemini) within the tenth home on the prime of the chart and in so doing
will solid its sq. side to Mercury (27 Leo) and the Ascendant.
Whereas Mars transits to the tenth home are sometimes not that unhealthy and may
even be fairly constructive, its sq. side to Mercury right here seems extra
malefic and means that treasuries will fall additional in worth which
would push yields even increased. In fact, if yields go increased, shares
grow to be extra susceptible to declines as they typically have an inverse
relationship. This relationship is probably much more sturdy nowadays
given the pace with which rates of interest have risen in only one yr.
Whereas worries over rising yields and inflation might abate as soon as
Saturn strikes out of vary of its opposition to the Solar within the subsequent few
weeks, we must always notice that Saturn is because of station at 13 Aquarius in a
shut sq. side to the Moon (12 Scorpio) in June. This implies
that yields will probably spike increased someday through the Might to July
interval when this Saturn-Moon sq. is making its closest side.
Whether or not this produces even increased highs in yields is difficult to say, however it
does appear to be it will likely be a big transfer increased.
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Picture Credit score: Son of Groucho